Episode notes
Mentor Sessions 093: Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden explain the 2026 global bond market crisis, private credit risk, yield curve control, and Bitcoin and gold as safe havens.
The global bond market is bleeding out in slow motion, and the real danger is buried in private credit that insurance companies can't sell without going insolvent. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden break down why the long end of the Treasury market is grinding higher, why Scott Bessent intervened before any visible crisis, and what happens when trillion-dollar balance sheets finally hit the sell button.
You'll learn why China is the one nation conspicuously absent from the sovereign debt rout, how AI-driven deflation is reshaping Chinese manufacturing, and why Gromen argues the U.S. now faces a "Weimar gold reparations" problem with true interest expense at 105% of receipts. You'll see why both guests believe rate hikes are no longer even a usable tool under fiscal dominance, how a Blackrock "one phone call" scenario could freeze $5 trillion in a crisis, and where Bitcoin and gold fit as bearer assets when markets get locked down. Alden makes the case for holding scarce assets and extra cash through the air pockets; Gromen explains why he trimmed Bitcoin and exactly when he'd aggressively buy it back.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:12 - Treasury Event or Broader Sovereign Debt Crisis
1:34 - Why China Avoids the Global Bond Rout
2:00 - Hyperscalers Emerge as New Bond Vigilantes
3:41 - Path Leading to Yield Curve Control
4:15 - Why Chinese 10-Year Yields Hit Global Lows
6:00 - AI Driving Deflation in Chinese Manufacturing
10:17 - Orderly Bond Market Grind vs Sensationalized Crash
13:43 - The Dog That Didn't Bark in Bessent's Move
14:38 - Silent Crisis Brewing in Private Credit
15:38 - Insurance Insolvency Risk Triggers Treasury Sales
19:01 - Liquidity Versus Solvency in Private Funds
27:44 - Will Warsh Raise Rates This Cycle
29:43 - True Interest Expense Hits 105% of Receipts
33:43 - Rate Hikes Fail Against Fiscal Dominance
35:50 - Crack Spreads, Diesel and Physical Bottlenecks
37:37 - Wall Street Awakening to Fiscal Dominance
40:12 - BlackRock's $5 Trillion Lockdown Scenario
41:00 - Past the Point of No Return for Markets
45:47 - Non-Linear Reset Versus Slow Economic Spiral
50:19 - Physical Constraints in Beef and Refineries
54:05 - Gormen Adds Back Bitcoin After Selling
57:07 - Lyn Alden on Bitcoin and Gold Outlook
Links & Resources:
Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com/
Luke Gromen: https://fftt-llc.com/
⚡Previous Episodes:
Michael Sullivan: https://youtu.be/wp5IYzcThUo
Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU
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