Episode notes
In today’s episode, Stig Brodersen is joined by Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra for a new round of stock pitches. Hari makes the case for Novo, until recently the most valuable company in Europe, now priced as if its obesity franchise is a melting ice cube. Stig pitches S&P Global, the company behind the S&P 500 and one of the world’s great ratings businesses, and explains why it became his first new position in more than a year. Tobias breaks down Deckers Brands, the owner of HOKA and UGG, trading at 11 times earnings and buying back stock aggressively.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:24) Why Hari is bullish on Novo Nordisk (Ticker: NVO), trading at 12 times forward earnings with a 4.5% dividend and an oral obesity pill gaining traction.
(00:15:24) The bear case for Novo Nordisk, including Eli Lilly’s lead in efficacy and market share, Medicare price negotiations, and patent expiries in key markets.
(00:28:19) Why Stig is bullish on S&P Global (Ticker: SPGI), highlighting the ratings oligopoly, the economics of the S&P 500 index, and why he bought a starter position below $400.
(00:46:35) The bear case for S&P Global, including AI disruption of Market Intelligence, competition from startups like AlphaSense and Rogo, and whether 23 times earnings is cheap enough.
(00:58:41) Why Tobias is bullish on Deckers (Ticker: DECK), emphasizing $1.6 billion in net cash, buybacks of 80% of free cash flow, and thoughtful capital allocation.
(01:19:51) The bear case for Deckers Brands, including slowing HOKA growth, the fashion risk in UGG, a squeezed consumer, and the low base rate for brands re-accelerating growth.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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